HopeSprings
09-24 01:41 PM
The calculation done by Bharatpremi seems to have flawed while calculating spill-over. Spill-over is first by preference and then by country. That is how till VB of August 2009, you see ROW EB1/2 was current and ROW EB3 was U and EB2I was in 2003.
Now, considering spill-over by preference first, the following could be a conservative analysis:
I am trying to see if EB2I can cross Dec 2006 by end of FY2010. So, we will consider only those cases that might be placed before EB2I PD as Dec 2006.
Consider all the pending EB(1+2+4+5) cases reported so far for ROW, China, Mexico and Phil and add it to pending EB(1+2+4+5) cases for India till end of 2006. The number is around 68000.
Assumption (the numbers for FY 2010 for cases that might be placed before an EB2I case with PD Dec 2006) -
- All EB4/5 cases till end of 2010 FY - 2000
- ROW, Mexico, Phil EB1/2 - 8000
- EB1 I/C - 1000
- The new cases from EB2C (PD Sep 2009 onwards) will not be placed before EB2I PD Dec 2006
Assuming cases cleared in the month of September - 4000 (around 7000 are eligible based on the cut-off date).
Total visa numbers required to clear off EB2 till Dec 2006 = 68000+2000+8000+1000-4000 = 75000
Visa numbers available for AOS for EB (1+2+4+5) in FY 2010:
Assuming 15% go to CP.
Total number for AOS = 119000
EB1 (28.6%) - 34034
EB2 (28.6%) - 34034
EB4 (7%) - 8330
EB5 (7%) - 8330
Total Visa numbers available for AOS for EB (1+2+4+5): 34034+34034+8330+8330 = 84728
So, total number needed to move EB2I past Dec 2006 is 75000. Total available for this cause is around 84000. If USCIS uses all the available visas, spills over only during last quarter and maintains Preference-first spillover policy, I think the visa dates will move well ahead of Dec 2006 by end of FY 2010, most likely in the following way:
Oct 2009 - Dec 2009: Jan/Feb 2005
Jan 2010 - June 2010: Mar/Apr 2005
Jul 2010 - Sep 2010: Feb/Apr 2007
Now, considering spill-over by preference first, the following could be a conservative analysis:
I am trying to see if EB2I can cross Dec 2006 by end of FY2010. So, we will consider only those cases that might be placed before EB2I PD as Dec 2006.
Consider all the pending EB(1+2+4+5) cases reported so far for ROW, China, Mexico and Phil and add it to pending EB(1+2+4+5) cases for India till end of 2006. The number is around 68000.
Assumption (the numbers for FY 2010 for cases that might be placed before an EB2I case with PD Dec 2006) -
- All EB4/5 cases till end of 2010 FY - 2000
- ROW, Mexico, Phil EB1/2 - 8000
- EB1 I/C - 1000
- The new cases from EB2C (PD Sep 2009 onwards) will not be placed before EB2I PD Dec 2006
Assuming cases cleared in the month of September - 4000 (around 7000 are eligible based on the cut-off date).
Total visa numbers required to clear off EB2 till Dec 2006 = 68000+2000+8000+1000-4000 = 75000
Visa numbers available for AOS for EB (1+2+4+5) in FY 2010:
Assuming 15% go to CP.
Total number for AOS = 119000
EB1 (28.6%) - 34034
EB2 (28.6%) - 34034
EB4 (7%) - 8330
EB5 (7%) - 8330
Total Visa numbers available for AOS for EB (1+2+4+5): 34034+34034+8330+8330 = 84728
So, total number needed to move EB2I past Dec 2006 is 75000. Total available for this cause is around 84000. If USCIS uses all the available visas, spills over only during last quarter and maintains Preference-first spillover policy, I think the visa dates will move well ahead of Dec 2006 by end of FY 2010, most likely in the following way:
Oct 2009 - Dec 2009: Jan/Feb 2005
Jan 2010 - June 2010: Mar/Apr 2005
Jul 2010 - Sep 2010: Feb/Apr 2007
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manderson
02-12 12:09 PM
pls read my post. I said EB3 ROW
are you dreaming ... India EB3 is 01AUG01
are you dreaming ... India EB3 is 01AUG01
shiankuraaf
07-14 09:39 PM
My dependents are out of US for almost 5 months for now and they have AP approved before they left US and they are planning to come to US in couple of weeks from now on AP. Our PD is going to be current in Aug08. Is this OK to be out of US for this much time when AOS is pending? Staying out of US for this long would effect their AOS processing in any way?
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msyedy
03-19 01:02 PM
Try this http://britishexpats.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=33
If you need help post there ....other small questions I can help u (free)
I am not a lawyer, but I can do it for you. I can gaurantee that you will get it if I do it. It is very very very simple. You can do it too.
But you think by moviing to Canada you will be in a better position.
I am a canadian immigrant and have been in US since I got my canadian GC because they do not have any jobs, I just took it during recession so that I can go to canada if laid off and it will be easier for me to come back to america.
Many of my friends have moved back to US after migrating because of the unemployement reasons. High Taxes.
It is upto you, I wish you best of luck, If you want to move
If you need help post there ....other small questions I can help u (free)
I am not a lawyer, but I can do it for you. I can gaurantee that you will get it if I do it. It is very very very simple. You can do it too.
But you think by moviing to Canada you will be in a better position.
I am a canadian immigrant and have been in US since I got my canadian GC because they do not have any jobs, I just took it during recession so that I can go to canada if laid off and it will be easier for me to come back to america.
Many of my friends have moved back to US after migrating because of the unemployement reasons. High Taxes.
It is upto you, I wish you best of luck, If you want to move
more...
gc4me
03-27 10:19 AM
I did some internet search and found this Q&A in murthy.com
Cooool...people go ahead with LC Sub.
Q. I have a pending green card case based on a substituted labor. Do I need to worry about this proposed regulation?
�MurthyDotCom
A. It would not seem to affect pending green cards based on substituted labor, as long as the substitution was not being requested through the DOL. This regulation prohibits substitution through the DOL. So, if it were to go into effect, it is possible that it would end all pending requests for substitution of beneficiaries made to the DOL.
�MurthyDotCom
Most substitution requests are made via the USCIS at the I-140 petition filing stage. This involves labor certifications that have already been approved, and the substitution request is made in the filing of the I-140 petition at the USCIS. The regulation attacks this process by making labor certifications valid for only 45 days. Thus, all I-140s would have to be filed within 45 days of labor certification approval. Even if the regulation were to pass, however, it does not appear that it would have the power to terminate pending I-140s (even if based on LC substitution). If the cases are proper when filed, it does not seem that the regulation would extend to pending USCIS cases since the proposed regulation is a DOL, not a USCIS, regulation. If it were a USCIS regulation, then it could impact pending I-140 cases for which the labor certification is over 45 days old at the time of filing - not just LC substitution cases. Those cases with approved I-140s do not appear to be vulnerable to this proposed regulation.
How do you now that? Any sources?
If text of the proposed memo will be the same, then all pending I-140 based on LC substitution should be denied.
Cooool...people go ahead with LC Sub.
Q. I have a pending green card case based on a substituted labor. Do I need to worry about this proposed regulation?
�MurthyDotCom
A. It would not seem to affect pending green cards based on substituted labor, as long as the substitution was not being requested through the DOL. This regulation prohibits substitution through the DOL. So, if it were to go into effect, it is possible that it would end all pending requests for substitution of beneficiaries made to the DOL.
�MurthyDotCom
Most substitution requests are made via the USCIS at the I-140 petition filing stage. This involves labor certifications that have already been approved, and the substitution request is made in the filing of the I-140 petition at the USCIS. The regulation attacks this process by making labor certifications valid for only 45 days. Thus, all I-140s would have to be filed within 45 days of labor certification approval. Even if the regulation were to pass, however, it does not appear that it would have the power to terminate pending I-140s (even if based on LC substitution). If the cases are proper when filed, it does not seem that the regulation would extend to pending USCIS cases since the proposed regulation is a DOL, not a USCIS, regulation. If it were a USCIS regulation, then it could impact pending I-140 cases for which the labor certification is over 45 days old at the time of filing - not just LC substitution cases. Those cases with approved I-140s do not appear to be vulnerable to this proposed regulation.
How do you now that? Any sources?
If text of the proposed memo will be the same, then all pending I-140 based on LC substitution should be denied.
mirage
03-30 01:47 PM
This is a good article, I guess all "Manmohan Singh's degrees" loving Indians should read this..
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Comments--Analysis/Fall-of-the-holy-trinity-MMS-PC-Montek/articleshow/4316378.cms?curpg=1
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Opinion/Comments--Analysis/Fall-of-the-holy-trinity-MMS-PC-Montek/articleshow/4316378.cms?curpg=1
more...
EndlessWait
06-28 03:48 PM
I heard that Fedex is going on strike in Nebraska in the month of July and will end their strike when retro kicks in?
Did anyone else hear this?? Can anyone post a valid link to this other than
OH OH OH OH Mathew site link????
:D :D :D :D :D
:D
Did anyone else hear this?? Can anyone post a valid link to this other than
OH OH OH OH Mathew site link????
:D :D :D :D :D
:D
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mallickarjunreddy
07-13 10:30 AM
WHY not go back to India if the GC process fails , I mean after all India is our home country rite .(I am talking only about Indians)
Health and Wealth are subjective after all
Health and Wealth are subjective after all
more...
at0474
12-13 04:12 PM
I dont think that the per-country cap on immigration is "Unconstitutional." It may not seem fair to those affected but it does not violate any article of the US consititution. The country has a right to regulate its borders; that is its right. We should try to argue that the policy is counter-productive and harmful - not that it is illegal.
--Well said.
--Well said.
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cableman
08-28 07:59 AM
Our frustration with the US legal immigration and retrogression seems endless. My wife and I are considering immigration prospects to Canada. Can somebody please suggest good responsive lawfirms that could handle a Canadian PR application? We would also appreciate some insight on Canadian immigration prospects for physicians. Thanks
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=1332&highlight=canada
Good luck.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=1332&highlight=canada
Good luck.
more...
msp1976
02-18 11:28 AM
This is an excellent analysis of why do you see so many EB based immigrants from India and not from other places...The same arguments can apply almost identically to the Chinese immigrants...
http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/sep2006/sb20060913_157784.htm?chan=search
I have been following your arguments and I get a sense that though not explicitly anti immigrants, you are opposed to any concentration of EB immigrants from any particular place..It just happens so that at this time it happens to be the Indians....
But a large concentration of Indians in this immigrant category is not an accident....nor is it just because of people preferring their kins for sponsoring....But because of the numerous facts enumerated in this article.....
Of course you can dismiss this argument as Indians promoting themselves...but what the heck... I have to at least try...
http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/sep2006/sb20060913_157784.htm?chan=search
I have been following your arguments and I get a sense that though not explicitly anti immigrants, you are opposed to any concentration of EB immigrants from any particular place..It just happens so that at this time it happens to be the Indians....
But a large concentration of Indians in this immigrant category is not an accident....nor is it just because of people preferring their kins for sponsoring....But because of the numerous facts enumerated in this article.....
Of course you can dismiss this argument as Indians promoting themselves...but what the heck... I have to at least try...
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sk2006
03-31 08:54 PM
Sanjay, just ignore them. These are the very same people who are taught from childhood to stab in back. They will not dare to put a post rather they type bad words in comments.
You think you are more patriotic than I?
What makes you think so?
Do you think discussing politics on immigration forum makes you more patriotic? Huh?
BTW, I was not the one to give you bad comments... I just gave you red after reading your responses to my original post.
You think you are more patriotic than I?
What makes you think so?
Do you think discussing politics on immigration forum makes you more patriotic? Huh?
BTW, I was not the one to give you bad comments... I just gave you red after reading your responses to my original post.
more...
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vdlrao
07-14 02:52 PM
Your assumption does not hold good for this year. As someone else already pointed out USCIS processed 80 to 85% of year 2008 quoto already, it would have only 15 to 20K visa till october08. For next year, if still the horizontal overflow happens it would add more numbers.
Nowhere i have seen in EB2 it goes beyond 50K except 2005(but there was AC21 implemented to recapture unused visa on 2005(Overall issued visa were 246,877.)
EB-2 India would go back to some date in October 2008,but to what date is anybody's guess.Lack of data about EB2 India for 2003,2004 is preventing us from forecasting this.
My guess for EB-2(I) for 2005 2006-MID JUNE EB2(I) is about 8000 from Perm Data.
I assume it would move back to 2004 ARP or MID 2005 to start with in 2008 November.
USCIS starts the Spill over normally after 6 months or 8 months. So to start year 2009 USCIS would have only 800 visa for first quarter for EB2-India.
For first quarter EB2 India will have 1/4 of 9,800(7% of 140k visas), which are 2,450 visas. I wonder
how u got 800 visas. I dont see much retrogression in EB2 dates other than some mild ones. And the dates move pretty fast on a whole.
About EB3: it wont be like now all the time. The Immigration reform bill wont keep failing all the time. There would be a time for it to pass in the next two years. As soon as it passes all our Employment Based categories, specifically EB3, will get greatest benefit with PDs almost becoming current.
Nowhere i have seen in EB2 it goes beyond 50K except 2005(but there was AC21 implemented to recapture unused visa on 2005(Overall issued visa were 246,877.)
EB-2 India would go back to some date in October 2008,but to what date is anybody's guess.Lack of data about EB2 India for 2003,2004 is preventing us from forecasting this.
My guess for EB-2(I) for 2005 2006-MID JUNE EB2(I) is about 8000 from Perm Data.
I assume it would move back to 2004 ARP or MID 2005 to start with in 2008 November.
USCIS starts the Spill over normally after 6 months or 8 months. So to start year 2009 USCIS would have only 800 visa for first quarter for EB2-India.
For first quarter EB2 India will have 1/4 of 9,800(7% of 140k visas), which are 2,450 visas. I wonder
how u got 800 visas. I dont see much retrogression in EB2 dates other than some mild ones. And the dates move pretty fast on a whole.
About EB3: it wont be like now all the time. The Immigration reform bill wont keep failing all the time. There would be a time for it to pass in the next two years. As soon as it passes all our Employment Based categories, specifically EB3, will get greatest benefit with PDs almost becoming current.
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h1techSlave
09-23 03:26 PM
aps, I can see your apprehension.
I already have a house here and am not planning to buy another by putting 20% down payment. But I support this idea, because, it might take away a couple of 100 people from the queue.
Plus, such a letter is indicating to the Congress that we are ready to give the country a helping hand when she needs our help the most.
I hope you would reconsider your position.
IV is started for one cause, that is to eliminate the unfair country quota and speed up the green card process. Let us stick with that.Do not divert by introducing these kind of proposals.
Few weeks before there was a fight between eb3 and eb2 applicants on this forum. Now you are starting a new group which favors who has money. This is not good. Let us unite and focus on one goal. I am not supporting this idea. Please drop this.
aps
I already have a house here and am not planning to buy another by putting 20% down payment. But I support this idea, because, it might take away a couple of 100 people from the queue.
Plus, such a letter is indicating to the Congress that we are ready to give the country a helping hand when she needs our help the most.
I hope you would reconsider your position.
IV is started for one cause, that is to eliminate the unfair country quota and speed up the green card process. Let us stick with that.Do not divert by introducing these kind of proposals.
Few weeks before there was a fight between eb3 and eb2 applicants on this forum. Now you are starting a new group which favors who has money. This is not good. Let us unite and focus on one goal. I am not supporting this idea. Please drop this.
aps
more...
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JA1HIND
02-13 11:13 AM
I think every body who wants to have a class action law suit should commit for $500 towards the expense. Only when we have commitment for $500 with person name and contact info, then we should move forward with the idea of Class action law suit. We need 500 people to commit for this otherwise there is no point in moving forward in this direction.
There might be some people who will be willing to pay money but not listed as participant, and visa-versa and we should have at least 500 people who are willing to pay.
Count me in for this law suite action and commit to pay $500 as part of my contribution, please IM me the details and will provide all the details that IV team needs from me...
Arvind
There might be some people who will be willing to pay money but not listed as participant, and visa-versa and we should have at least 500 people who are willing to pay.
Count me in for this law suite action and commit to pay $500 as part of my contribution, please IM me the details and will provide all the details that IV team needs from me...
Arvind
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conchshell
07-29 02:41 PM
I think the idea being circulated by the Ron and Murtys of this world that DOL pushed out the dates to get CP to use up the numbers that USCIS is incapable or unwilling to use seems to go down the drain I don't think DOL cares about 100 odd visas that much.:)
Exactly .. that was the purpose behind taking a rough count of CP filers scheduled for GC stamping at US Consulates in India. With the data we have, Ron's argument does not carry much wait.
Exactly .. that was the purpose behind taking a rough count of CP filers scheduled for GC stamping at US Consulates in India. With the data we have, Ron's argument does not carry much wait.
more...
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srkamath
07-24 08:18 PM
Some lawyers (like the one mentioned here) like to advocate Consular Processing. At the risk of sounding cynical i'll say it..
Lawyers are always trying to make money. During last July, several people self-filed I-485s, therefore lawyers lost business.
Now if they create enough noise about long EB2 backlogs for AOS via USCIS, people might be scared enough to opt for consular processing, which is complicated enough that you'd need a lawyer !.
I'm gonna ignore this lawyer's posts ..
Lawyers are always trying to make money. During last July, several people self-filed I-485s, therefore lawyers lost business.
Now if they create enough noise about long EB2 backlogs for AOS via USCIS, people might be scared enough to opt for consular processing, which is complicated enough that you'd need a lawyer !.
I'm gonna ignore this lawyer's posts ..
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g03
01-14 10:00 AM
I had a similar thought (about including EB3 too and going by priority date)
and sent a letter to local congressman yesterday afternoon.
He has not responded yet.
My company agreed to port mine to EB2 but I'll support this provision having spent my time in EB3 category.
and sent a letter to local congressman yesterday afternoon.
He has not responded yet.
My company agreed to port mine to EB2 but I'll support this provision having spent my time in EB3 category.
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Marphad
05-19 10:06 AM
Illusions, Thanks Bro!!
Marphad, I have posted less than 20 posts in this forum and I have never posted anything anti-immigrant. The most number of posts I have ever posted was in this thread.
And that was because I saw some people posting misleading information about the Sri Lankan war and I wanted everyone to see at least what I consider to be the real situation. I can't help it if people have trouble listening to different opinions and different sides of the story but this is a public forum and I have the freedom to post what I feel as long as I don't cross the line.
In any case, I am too happy today to be wasting my time on petty stuff like these.
Hasta la vista Baby!!!! :D
Would you consider updating your profile please!
Marphad, I have posted less than 20 posts in this forum and I have never posted anything anti-immigrant. The most number of posts I have ever posted was in this thread.
And that was because I saw some people posting misleading information about the Sri Lankan war and I wanted everyone to see at least what I consider to be the real situation. I can't help it if people have trouble listening to different opinions and different sides of the story but this is a public forum and I have the freedom to post what I feel as long as I don't cross the line.
In any case, I am too happy today to be wasting my time on petty stuff like these.
Hasta la vista Baby!!!! :D
Would you consider updating your profile please!
jsb
06-01 09:48 AM
I think this is a requirement from US government that countries that need a SSA agreement with US needs to have a Social Security system. Asking our SSA and Medicare back is a good strategy which will benefit us one way or other....
.
With SSA agreements with other countries, money is not returned to you if/when you leave the US. Contributions you made for similar programs while working in other contries are collectively considered to decide your final benefit at retirement. Having no parallel plan in India it is difficult to have such an arrangment with them.
Stronger argument would be, why should a guest worker contribute to SSA/Medicare when those programs are for permanent residents/citizens hoping to retire in the US. It should be payable only after getting GC. Of course, in that case, your benefits at retirement would also be lower. Note that your employer also makes an equal contributions to these plans.
Most of you may already know but let me restate, if you work in the US for 10 yrs, you will get SSA at retirement, no matter if you have GC or not or where you live. There are some exceptions but they don't apply to India/China citizens living in their home countries.
.
With SSA agreements with other countries, money is not returned to you if/when you leave the US. Contributions you made for similar programs while working in other contries are collectively considered to decide your final benefit at retirement. Having no parallel plan in India it is difficult to have such an arrangment with them.
Stronger argument would be, why should a guest worker contribute to SSA/Medicare when those programs are for permanent residents/citizens hoping to retire in the US. It should be payable only after getting GC. Of course, in that case, your benefits at retirement would also be lower. Note that your employer also makes an equal contributions to these plans.
Most of you may already know but let me restate, if you work in the US for 10 yrs, you will get SSA at retirement, no matter if you have GC or not or where you live. There are some exceptions but they don't apply to India/China citizens living in their home countries.
lalithkx
07-15 06:04 PM
Hi,
I found that priority date field on my I-140 receipt is empty. Will this create any problem??
I filed concurrently lasy july and MY PD will be current next month. I applied at NSC but got transferred to TSC.
Thanks for the answers
I found that priority date field on my I-140 receipt is empty. Will this create any problem??
I filed concurrently lasy july and MY PD will be current next month. I applied at NSC but got transferred to TSC.
Thanks for the answers
